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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/08 11:48
The Livestock Complex Trends Lower Into Friday's Noon Hour
A single bid is on the table in Nebraska, but no new trade has developed
following Thursday's business.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's frustrating to see the cattle contracts again trading lower when the
market's fundamentals have been strong this week. Unfortunately, that's
sometimes how "the cookie crumbles" when the market's technical influence has
more power than its fundamentals do. A single bid is currently on the table in
Nebraska at $405, but no new trade has been noted. July corn is up 4 3/4 cents
per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is up 10.47 points and NASDAQ is up 371.80 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been a day of back-and-forth trading. Initially, the live cattle
complex was trading higher as traders seemed to acknowledge the strong
fundamental support of this week's cash market -- but lo and behold -- that
train of thought obviously didn't last long, as now, heading into the noon
hour, the contracts are back to trading lower. More than anything, the last two
days have been a prime example of algorithm trading, which can lead the market
in the exact opposite direction compared to what the market's fundamental
influences would encourage. June live cattle are down $0.05 at $250.00, August
live cattle are down $0.72 at $245.17 and October live cattle are down $1.17 at
$238.80. A single bid is currently on the table in Nebraska at $405, but no
cattle have traded yet today following Thursday's business. So far this week,
Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $402, which is $3.00 higher than
last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly
$256 to $257, which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted
average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.08 ($389.02) and select up $0.75
($385.17) with a movement of 82 loads (60.84 loads of choice, 8.85 loads of
select, 7.01 loads of trim and 5.68 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower into Friday's noon hour as
the market continues to closely track and follow the direction of the live
cattle complex. May feeders are down $0.57 at $265.75, August feeders are down
$2.52 at $363.65 and September feeders are down $2.72 at $361.92. It's
disappointing to see both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trading
lower when the market's fundamentals are strong, but unfortunately, the
market's technical influence seems to hold more power this week.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour with a few of
the deferred months trading higher, but by and large the complex is trading
mostly lower. June lean hogs are down $0.62 at $98.75, July lean hogs are up
$0.15 at $103.10 and August lean hogs are steady at $104.10. It is worth noting
that demand is strong as pork cutout values are up over $2.00 this morning, but
with that support coming late in the week, it's unlikely to make a significant
impact.
The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 236 head have traded this morning and that the
market's five-day rolling average now sits at $95.11. Pork cutouts total 227.41
loads with 191.67 loads of pork cuts and 35.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout
values: up $2.11, $97.71.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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